Deer Harvest Correlation Explorer
| # | Month | Weekday Window | Moon | Lift | Rate |
|---|
Month-by-month effort-adjusted momentum.
Early: Sep–Oct · Prime: Nov · Late: Dec–Jan.
| # | Window | Years | Mean Rate | CV | Stability |
|---|
| # | County | Avg Annual Kills | Selected-Year Total |
|---|
| # | Window | Rate | Lift | Days |
|---|
Filled bars = holiday-adjusted rate. Line = DOW-only rate. The gap between bar and line reveals how much holiday coincidence inflates or deflates each phase. Full Moon loses ~6 percentage points of its signal once Thanksgiving Full Moon years are properly weighted.
2015 & 2018 were Full Moon Thanksgivings — the highest-effort day of the year aligned with the highest-activity moon phase. This accounts for ~6.3 percentage points of the raw Full Moon signal.
Each cell shows normalized kills per effort-unit for that phase in that season. Color is scaled within each year (brighter = highest that year, darker = lowest). This isolates whether a given phase was productive in a given year independent of overall season size.
🌡 Weather Correlation (Live)
These charts summarize effort-adjusted harvest rates by daily weather bands from the current correlation payload.
Scope: Full filter set
Active filters: none
Rows in scope: —
Weather coverage: —
Sensitivity is the spread between best and worst band rates relative to the slice baseline.
| # | Month | Weekday Window | Moon | Temp | Wind | Rain | Lift | Rate | Days | Kills |
|---|
Start with Overview for broad patterns, then use filters one at a time. Compare normalized rates first, then totals.
Overview: start with Best Days, then Momentum, Season Timing Split, Stability Score, County Leaderboard, and Date Benchmark.
Moon × Adjustments: shows how much holiday timing inflates or reduces moon effects.
Holiday Effects: compares holiday days against baseline days.
Weapon & Animal: checks whether the phase pattern is consistent across groups.
Year Heatmap: compares phase performance within each season year.
Weather: read Sensitivity Profile first, then band charts and Best Hunt Windows table.
Higher normalized rate means stronger harvest performance after effort adjustment.
A positive lift means above baseline; negative lift means below baseline.
Stability score reflects cross-year consistency for a window: higher = more repeatable, lower = more year-to-year volatility.
County leaderboard is sourced from yearly county totals and filtered by selected years; it is independent of moon/weather subfilters.
Date Benchmark is an approximation from month + weekday windows (not exact calendar-date granularity in this payload).
If a pattern disappears after adjustment, holiday or day-of-week timing likely explained part of the raw signal.
Use Weather as supporting context, not standalone proof.
In the Weather tab, "Scope" and "Active filters" lines show exactly which filters are driving current weather charts.
Normalized rate: kills adjusted by estimated hunting effort.
Lift: percent above or below baseline comparison level.
Stability (0–100): inverse coefficient of variation across years for the same month + weekday + moon window.
Weather sensitivity: spread between strongest and weakest weather-band rates relative to current slice baseline.
Holiday-adjusted: rates corrected so holiday timing does not dominate moon comparisons.
Filtered kills: records that match your current left-sidebar filters.
Correlation is not causation: aligned trends do not prove one factor causes another.
Small subgroup filters can produce noisy swings; check record counts before concluding.
County names are mapped from VA FIPS lookup; if lookup is unavailable, labels may fall back to FIPS codes.
Year-to-year regulation and reporting changes can affect totals and composition.